The Effect of Budget Sequestration on Global Health: Projecting the Human Impact in Fiscal Year 2013

Update January 24, 2013 

In July 2012 amfAR calculated the potential impact of budget sequestration on US Government funded global health programing. That document is available here 

This paper updates these estimates based on changes to sequestration made by Congress in January 2013.   The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) has estimated that if it is imposed in March 2013, sequestration will lead to a 5.1% across-the-board funding cut to most non-defense discretionary programs.¹  As we found in our earlier calculations, applying sequestration cuts to US government global health programming would have minimal impact on deficit reduction, but would be devastating to the lives of many thousands of people globally. 

As a result of sequestration of US Government bilateral support:

• HIV/AIDS treatment for 165,400 people will not be available, potentially leading to 37,700 more AIDS-related deaths and 74,300 more children becoming orphans.
• 64,700 fewer HIV-positive pregnant women will receive services to prevent mother-to-child transmission, leading to nearly 12,300 infants being infected with HIV.
• Funding for food, education, and livelihood assistance will not be available for 229,500 children.
• 1.2 million fewer insecticide-treated mosquito nets will be procured, leading to over 3,100 deaths due to malaria; 2 million fewer people will receive treatment.
• 36,000 fewer people with tuberculosis (TB) will receive treatment, leading to 4,300 more deaths due to TB; 200 fewer people with multidrug-resistant TB will receive treatment.
• 805,200 fewer pentavalent vaccines for children will be available through GAVI, leading to 8,500 more deaths from preventable diseases.

As a result of sequestration of contributions to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria:

• 1.5 million fewer insecticide-treated mosquito nets will be available, leading to 4,000 deaths from malaria.
• 54,800 fewer TB patients will receive treatment, leading to 6,600 more TB deaths.
• An additional 61,000 people will not be treated for HIV/AIDS.

¹Kogan, R. (January 22, 2013). Here’s how the March 1 sequester would work. Off the Charts (Blog). Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Available online at http://www.offthechartsblog.org/heres-how-the-march-1-sequester-would-work/ (date last accessed: January 23, 2013)