In July 2012 amfAR calculated the potential impact of budget sequestration on US Government funded global health programing. That document is available here.
This paper updates these estimates based on changes to sequestration made by Congress in January 2013. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that if it is imposed in March 2013, sequestration will lead to a 5.3% across-the-board funding cut to most non-defense discretionary programs1. As we found in our earlier calculations, applying sequestration cuts to US government global health programming would have minimal impact on deficit reduction, but would be devastating to the lives of many thousands of people globally.
As a result of sequestration of US Government bilateral support:
HIV/AIDS treatment for 171,900 people will not be available, potentially leading to 39,200 more AIDS-related deaths and 77,200 more children becoming orphans.
67,200 fewer HIV-positive pregnant women will receive services to prevent mother-to-child transmission, leading to nearly 12,800 infants being infected with HIV.
Funding for food, education, and livelihood assistance will not be available for 238,500 children.
1.2 million fewer insecticide-treated mosquito nets will be procured, leading to over 3,200 deaths due to malaria; 2 million fewer people will receive treatment.
37,400 fewer people with tuberculosis (TB) will receive treatment, leading to 4,500 more deaths due to TB; 200 fewer people with multidrug-resistant TB will receive treatment.
836,800 fewer pentavalent vaccines for children will be available through GAVI, leading to 8,900 more deaths from preventable diseases.
As a result of sequestration of contributions to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria:
1.6 million fewer insecticide-treated mosquito nets will be available, leading to 4,200 deaths from malaria.
57,000 fewer TB patients will receive treatment, leading to 6,800 more TB deaths.
An additional 63,400 people will not be treated for HIV/AIDS.
1 CBO. (February 2013). The budget and economic outlook: Fiscal years 2013 to 2023. (p. 14, Table 1-2). Available online at http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43907_Outlook_2012-2-5_Corrected.pdf. (date last accessed: February 6, 2013)